WHAT IS THE COUP BELT?
The Coup Belt is a term used to describe the region around the Sahel that has a high prevalence of coups d’état. Although the term has been used for decades, it has become increasingly popular now due to a recent resurgence of coups, including in Mali in 2020, Chad, Guinea, and Sudan in 2021, Burkina Faso in 2022, and in Niger and Gabon in 2023. The coups have many similarities – mostly arising from dissatisfied militaries who have been critical of their government’s handling of protests. Many of the insurgents also have souring relations with the West, and seek support typically from Russia or Turkey over the former colonial power, France.
WHAT IS THE CAUSE?
All of the recent coups that have occurred in the Coup Belt have taken place in regions of Africa that were once under French rule, and since 1990, 78% of the 27 coups in Africa have occurred in Francophone states. With insurgents largely favouring relations with Russia and Turkey over France, it has led many to connect the coups to souring relationships of West Africa and the Sahel with France.
There is much to support these grievances, as French colonial rule established a system that extracted local resources to metropolitan France. However, these systems were very similar to what the British implemented, and former British colonies in Africa have had notably less insurgencies than former French colonies in the past three decades. The reasoning for this has largely come down to how much engagement was retained by France in the region. The pro-French leaders of many of these nations relied heavily on France for military intervention. Many insurgents relate this relationship with France, often referred to collectively as ‘Françafrique’, to problems of corruption and a powerful elite.
Despite this being a potential root to the recent coups, domestic factors also come into play. President Bazoum planned to reform the military high command in Niger prior to its insurgency, and in Mali, the coup was preceded by an influx of Islamist forces following the collapse of the Libyan state in 2011. This means that although the coups have their similarities in being former French colonies, other issues are at play.
WHAT IS THE LIKELY FUTURE OF COUNTRIES IN THE COUP BELT?
It would appear that the primary goal of many of these insurgencies is to remove French influence, but this is unlikely to be straightforward. As insurgents gain closer ties to Russia, there may be an establishment of systems in the Sahel that replicate France’s former influence in the area, but are instead under the command of Russia.
CONCLUSION
Whilst the former governments of these nations were unpopular due to the general dissatisfaction with the Françafrique, it is not to say that the general public will necessarily support the military elite in its place and therefore be open to new relations with Russia and Turkey. The Sahel is one of the poorest regions globally, with poverty rates being estimated at over 40% in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger due to factors such as land degradation, extreme weather, and desertification. The issues of much of the population of these nations may not be addressed by new military order or new international relations, hence in the decades to come, we may see more system changes in the region.
